A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
